Validation for my key messages for founders came from several sources over the last two weeks. I’ve spoken with academic thought-leaders, corporate strategy and innovation experts and founders of new deals. And my Twitter stream has delivered new evidence of my premises via VCs and Silicon Valley reporters.
Here are some notes from these discussions and resources:
1. Entrepreneurs can’t construct much (or any) of a winning formula on a white board (and neither can I as an advisor).
The key is speed. Launch, be transparent with your premises and propositions. Ask the market to vet and validate your ideas.
In the book Unleashing the Killer App: Digital Strategies for Market Dominance, there is a quote along these lines: "The dirty little secret of the ‘Strategy Industry’ is there is no science to successful strategy creation. The best course is to take your ideas and expertise and go by gut in launching fast and tuning to the marketplace. The winning entrepreneurs who do this also benefit from lucky foresight. Put yourself in the best position for lucky foresight.
Look at eBay, Google, Twitter and YouTube. In my opinion, none started with a strategy, or even a business model that stuck. Instead, they launched fast on a hunch and passion and had the lucky foresight for the market to embrace them. Here is my top line view of how these companies started:
* eBay's idea: PEZ candy dispenser collectors should have a better way to connect with other collectors
* Google: Search shouldn't suck (no notion of advertising as biz model)
* YouTube: We want to share our videos easier (no notion of revenue)
* Twitter: Our last project didn't work, what else can futz around with & see what people think of it (no business model)
2. I need “xxx thousand dollars and x months to build my site”.
It’s no longer surprising to me that first time entrepreneurs still think that Web site development to market their product or service is a big hairball to swallow prior to launch. I recently met with an entrepreneur trying to raise a million dollars because she'd gotten a quote for $400K and 4 months to ‘build’ her site. In that meeting, I showed her on the Web two platform providers, one for content publishing, and one for video curation, both freemium and both ready to go for her best guess at her look-and-feel, brand and her professional services business. Last I heard she launched within a couple of months on her own dime.
A fresh case history that validates the two premises above is Mint.com, sold to Intuit for $170M two years after launch. If you’ve time, watch this video of founder Aaron Patzer. Listen to how little cash the founders used to bootstrap the quick launch on their premise that personal money management should be easier, and even a bit fun. And watch how their first site design evolved from market feedback.
Mint.com launch story.
3. Fresh insights from others.
When colleagues say they still don’t get Twitter, I point out that it’s really at the front lines of the emerging real time Web, where you no longer have to search for what you want. Instead, what you want “just shows up”. I point out that I used to do up to ten Google searches a day, and check my Google Readers a few times too. I do neither now. Instead I watch my Twitter stream of the 400 smart and connected folks I follow and when they share something of value to my work and interests, that’s where I go on the Web.
Here’re some shared discoveries from last week:
From VC Steve Jurvetson:
Successful companies need co-founders who let each other run with their individual expertise via mutual respect:
Steve Jurvetson on co-founders getting out of each other's way
Shared by recent VC Eric Olson
Statistical analysis of the companies profiled in best-selling books about entrepreneurship showed that luck played as big a part as operational excellence:
Proof on the value of 'Lucky Foresight'
And lastly, more validation of my first point about launching fast and going by the gut: If you fail, that’s a good thing:
Embracing failure for those who launch fast via their guts.
UPDATE 11/2
Just this morning VC Fred Wilson's blog post includes more validation. The post is about what his firm does with its Thesis for categories it invests in. Wilson is an investor in Twitter and other red hot Web application deals:
"i try to make our thesis public every day on this blog. there's no way i would ever try to keep it a secret since this community helps us develop it"
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